So here are three possible scenarios for the election. Obviously, there are a lot more possibilities that could happen but let’s look at these three for now. Humour me.
Trump loses the popular vote by more than 3 million but legitimately (as much as this election will be considered legitimate) wins the electoral congress and stays President. The Senate stays Republican and Mitch survives in his seat. Then they have 4 years to erode as much legitimate government as they want. They prosecute, with sham trials, as many Democrats as they can, there’s already committees in place. Civil unrest continues but with massive Federal crackdowns and mass arrests. And the Republicans find ways to consolidate power to make future elections irrelevant, because those days are over. That’s what they’ve been doing the last four years, I don’t think they’re gonna change strategies now. Kind of like Putin’s model of clearing opposition and holding rigged elections. I think this is a 20% chance.
Trump loses the popular vote by a landslide but the electoral college is close enough to claim he won and an army of operatives all around the country go to work to keep him, and as many Republicans as they can, in power. He litigates in every state, the state media goes full boar and it’s complete chaos. Think Florida 2000 but nationwide. There’s enough planted judges going along and eventually Roberts calls it for Trump and that triggers whatever forces that could actually remove a President to stand down and let it go.
There’s massive unrest, giant federal reaction with mass arrests, they begin charging Democrats with crimes, all while covid-19 is raging as we head into Winter. And when the smoke clears Trump and the Republican Senate stay in power no matter what the real results are. This then leads to a couple of brutal years of massive unrest, or it could last decades and become the new normal for a while, hard to say, depends on the strength of the resistance. Many people might just give in and adapt because you know they got to feed their family and not resisting will allow access to the economy. This I would say is about a 50% chance.
Trump loses big, really big, and it’s practically undeniable, and he peacefully concedes the election and retires. Just kidding, there’s like a 4% chance of that happening. Instead they go for it and try to deny the legitimacy of the election (see above), there’s massive upheaval, massive crackdown and mass arrests, covid-19 is raging and either Roberts blinks or whatever powers that be that can actually remove an administration just decide enough is enough and they install whatever winning Government is somehow decided, and the Democrats take the House, Senate and Presidency.
Then Trump and Co are either dealt with in commissions and trials or we let him fester on the sidelines for a few decades as he and his kids lead the right wing resistance and constantly cause problems. This, as crazy as it seems, is probably our best scenario of these three
and has about 26% of a chance accounting for the 4% chance that he stands down and starts a resistance media outlet.
There are more options, like he wins but they lose the Senate and then there’s chaos and craziness and militias and all out mayhem until the impeachment and we’re still stuck with Pence, you get the idea. But in any case I’d gear up for a crazy Fall. Eat right, get your workouts in, get your clothes and gear together. Maybe stock away some cash. Definitely don’t over schedule yourself because you’ll probably be part of the resistance and we’ll need you. I know I said humour me but I’m not kidding or exaggerating. Retired generals are saying there won’t be a peaceful transition of power. Obama said it, Axelrod, Franken, etc., not exactly the fringe left conspiracy crowd.
I don’t know why many people don’t think it can happen here, but it is, and it’s right now.